0to1: 98.24% , [15-{(current upgrade level=0)+1}] x 40 / 5.7
1to2: 92.85% , [15-{(current upgrade level=1)+1}] x 40 / 5.6
2to3: 87.27% , [15-{(current upgrade level=2)+1}] x 40 / 5.5
3to4: 81.48% , [15-{(current upgrade level=3)+1}] x 40 / 5.4
4to5: 75.47% , [15-{(current upgrade level=4)+1}] x 40 / 5.3
5to6: 69.23% , [15-{(current upgrade level=5)+1}] x 40 / 5.2
6to7: 63.27% , [15-{(current upgrade level=6)+1}] x 40 / 5.05
( 7 to 8 upgrade . if the chance to fail comes out, x is reset = 0 )
7to8: 55.22% , [15-{(current upgrade level=7)+1}] x 40 / 5.07
8to9: 45.28% , [15-{(current upgrade level=8 )+1}] x 40 / 5.3
9to10: 35.71% , [15-{(current upgrade level=9)+1}] x 40 / 5.6
(10 to 11upgrade . when the chance to fail comes out, becomes 0. the item disappears. )
10to11: 25.39% , [15-{(current upgade level=10)+1}] x 40 / 6.3
11to12: 15.56% , [15-{(current upgrade level=11)+1}] x 40 / 7.71
12to13: 8.88% , [15-{(current upgrade level=12)+1}] x 40 / 9.0
13to14: 3.5% , [15-{(current upgrade level=13)+1}] x 40 / 11.4
( condition , 14 to 15 upgrade: the +1 to current upgrade level is gone)
14to15: 2.81% , [15-{current upgrade level=14}] x 40 / 14.2
( condition , 15 to 16 upgrade: -1 to current upgrade level)
15to16: 2.31% , [15-{(current upgrade level=15)-1}] x 40 / 17.31
( like this, match the current upgrade level to 14 from +15 and on)